Many millions worldwide live with the threat of injury, death or loss of property or livelihood from a volcanic eruption. Volcanologists are making rapid progress in the development of computer models to predict the physical characteristics of likely eruptions, and for the past decade CAR has been working alongside the modellers to relate these physical models to human consequences.

EXPLORIS, a €2m project funded by the EU, in which CAR with the Martin Centre was one of ten partners across Europe, has modelled explosive eruptions at four key volcanoes in different European countries. The project has resulted in significant improvement in the understanding of risks to buildings and people from explosive volcanic eruptions, and has for the first time developed a sound probabilistic basis for estimating human casualties and property losses.

Important steps have been made towards a tool which civil protection authorities, property owners and insurers can use to devise cost-effective protection measures, and help reduce the risks associated with living close to active volcanoes. The EXPLORIS Project was coordinated by the INGV Volcanology Laboratory in Pisa. UK collaborators include the University of Cambridge Department of Architecture and Institute of Public Health, the University of Luton, and Aspinall Associates.

In a follow-up project, CAR will work with the PLINIUS laboratory at Naples University on the application of these tools in the Campania Region of Italy (including the Campi Flegrei volcanic area as well as Vesuvius), and with IPGP, Paris, in a parallel application to Soufriere, Guadeloupe.