EXPLORIS: Modelling risks for emergency planning


Robin Spence
[email protected]
tel: 01223 460475

Many millions worldwide live with the threat of injury, death or loss of property or livelihood from a volcanic eruption. Volcanologists are making rapid progress in the development of computer models to predict the physical characteristics of likely eruptions, and for the past decade CAR has been working alongside the modellers to relate these physical models to human consequences.

EXPLORIS was a €2m project funded by the EU, in which CAR with the Martin Centre was one of ten partners across Europe. EXPLORIS modelled explosive eruptions at four key volcanoes in different European countries. The project has resulted in significant improvement in the understanding of risks to buildings and people from explosive volcanic eruptions, and has for the first time developed a sound probabilistic basis for estimating human casualties and property losses.

In a follow-up project, SpeeD, CAR worked with the PLINIUS laboratory at Naples University on the application of these tools in the Campania Region of Italy in order to contribute to the work of the Italian Government Department of Civil Protection in updating the Emergency Plan for Vesuvius and producing a new Emergency Plan for Campi Flegrei.